That sound you can hear is a million media comms and advertising plans being screwed up and thrown in the bin. Because whatever you thought 2020 was going to be like, you didn’t anticipate this.

As the tensions and uncertainty of the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic settle into the fraught stability of lockdown, new behavioural trends are emerging.

It seems almost certain that the economic impact of the pandemic will be more profound even than the financial crisis of 2008/9. In these conditions, it becomes even more important to make smart decisions about where to target media spend to optimise reach and impact.

Because disruption always comes with opportunity. We could be seeing a fundamental shift in how people relate to the mixed media ecology or simply a series of blips in response to a one-off, unforeseeable event and its fallout. Either way, smart decisions now could make all the difference between which brands thrive and which are swept away.

Mean more and last longer

When emotions run high, the bonds and impressions people make last longer and mean more. The decisions a customer makes about your brand in the next few weeks will carry more weight than a dozen subsequent interactions.

Powerhouse brands that misjudge the mood and put a foot wrong now could find their reputations in tatters for years to come. Insurgent brands who give people the reassurance they need will become national treasures overnight: see the sensational success of Joe Wicks, whose morning exercise sessions are reaching every generation and uniting stuck-at-home schoolkids with their parents and grandparents.

New words, new worlds

As little as two weeks ago we were becoming used to using unfamiliar concepts like ‘voluntary self-isolation’ and ‘social distancing’. Across the UK and most of the West, these ideas have been absorbed into a single, far less equivocal or voluntary social directive: lockdown.

This has had the biggest effect on the biggest form of advertising media: Out of Home (OOH).

For years the data has made it clear that OOH is the dominant media when it comes to reach. See the IPA’s Making Sense: The Commercial Media Landscape for just one recent example.

You don’t have to be a genius to realise that OOH takes a big hit in lockdown conditions. There is still some movement around the country of course. And in some respects, the composition of that essential worker audience becomes more predictably segmented and theoretically valuable. But the reality is, with traditional and digital signage clustering around transport nodes that have lost 90% of their footfall, that reach is not worth what it was.

The dynamic changes entirely, and suddenly in-home channels which, for many brands were traditionally out of bounds for much of the day are back in play. This significant but temporary pivot away from OOH isn’t a time to rest however: it’s a time to plan. When the lockdown ends, the competition for prime OOH locations will be fierce, the marketplace will be saturated and pricing strategies and creative messaging will both need to be aligned to greet the re-emergence with open arms.

Stepping inside

But for the weeks ahead we need to think about the way that the situation is affecting behaviour in the home and how that changes what we think we know about media consumption. Understanding the new habits is crucial for smart brands’ media and advertising investment.

Expect TV and video-on-demand (VOD) to surge in usage, with changes to consumption habits and broader audience demographics as more diverse generations are exposed to daytime TV. This will be true of traditional ad-funded platforms (Sky, Channel 4, ITV etc.) as well as ad-free subscription platforms such as Netflix and Prime Video.

Digital video (YouTube, TikTok, Twitch etc.) and streaming consumption are on the increase, with the biggest gains in child and youth-oriented channels as children finish their online lessons from home hours before the end of the normal school day.

As people are working from home, having the radio on in the background is a favoured, time-honoured way of cutting through feelings of isolation. Many digital radio channels are already reporting 10%+ leaps in listeners. This is a huge opportunity for extending reach through radio and audio advertising, but the rules will change temporarily. Traditional peak slots such as drivetime and breakfast will be affected by new commuter patterns, and those who are still listening in the car will be more easily to profile as essential keyworkers.

Apps like Zoom and Houseparty are having a real moment. Online, face-to-face group chats are rapidly normalising, and this trend is likely to last long after the crisis has passed. Social media advertising is becoming more popular as face-to-face interactions fall off, but stratification-by-platform is intensifying: all of the established players are becoming more extreme versions of themselves. Facebook for families, LinkedIn trying hard to do business-as-usual, Instagram for escapism, and Twitter for frantic dispatches and reactions from the front lines of the pandemic.

Increased dwell time means more available impressions for ad activity, opening the door to higher engagement and long-form brand communications, as long as they are attuned to the specific sensitivities of the situation, the audience and the platform.  Increased usage coupled with a potential reduction of advertisers, as many smaller businesses sadly fall away, could lead to more efficient activity and represents a real opportunity for brands.

Even before the lockdown certain sectors like Travel, Sport and Hospitality were already feeling the effects of the pandemic. Search and display advertising are the gateways to understanding user intent and a powerful secret weapon for preparing for re-emergence.

Smarter brands will be watching wish-list searching and thinking about the lookback window. ‘Boredom browsing’ for aspirational lifestyle products with low immediate intent to buy has become an, even more, popular pastime since the crisis started.

As it recedes, there will be huge opportunities to re-engage those searchers when they are finally able to get back on with their lives.