In a chaotic market and a turbulent geopolitical climate, it is perhaps understandable that many marketing leaders have been bearish on the growth prospects for 2026. Yet while hope alone is not a sustainable business strategy, the latest Bellwether figures should give the industry genuine reasons to be bullish.

According to the Q1 2026 Bellwether Report, UK companies revised their market budgets up to the highest level in almost two years. The latest survey, which was in the field between 2-24 March 2026, reveals that a net balance of +7.3% of respondents revised their total marketing spend upwards in Q1, with 26.8% of panellists reporting an increase in marketing spend against 19.5% of the survey panel that recorded a reduction. This is up noticeably from a flatline net balance of 0.0% in Q4 2025.

The report reveals that the experience economy is continuing to boom. In the first quarter, events recorded an increase of +14.7%, a substantial increase from the +1.4% increase recorded in the previous quarter. PR was another bright spot with a +6.0% increase (up from +3.5% in Q4 2025), marking the highest figure in five quarters.

Reasons to be cheerful

There was also a renewed rise in budgets for main media advertising in Q1, following no change in each of the prior three quarters. The net balance climbed to +4.5%, marking its strongest upward revision since Q3 2023. Breaking out this main media category revealed that budgets were increased in two of the five tracked categories: other online advertising and video, with both posting a net balance of +5.7%. 

However, while the net balance for other online advertising fell from the last quarter (+13.2%), the net balance for video marketing spend rebounded from -5.0% in the previous quarter. 

It was not all good news however,  budgets for audio, published brands, and out-of-home marketing continued to decline, with net balances of -3.4%, -8.5%, and -11.3%, respectively.

Commenting on the figures, Paul Bainsfair, Director General of the IPA, said: “These latest Bellwether results defy wider geopolitical uncertainty and signal a bullish start to the year for UK marketing investment. Looking at the detail, it is pleasing to see that budgets for main media are up.”

He continued: “The evidence is being heeded, even in tougher conditions, cutting back on advertising risks long-term damage. It is therefore welcome news that UK companies are holding their nerve and investing to stay front of consumers’ minds, strengthen their brands and drive future growth.”

The resilience factor 

Looking ahead, marketing leaders continue to walk the tightrope between resilience and realism. 

Budget plans for the 2026/27 financial year suggest that marketing executives are slightly more optimistic towards spending prospects than initial data indicated, with the net balance revised up from +1.7% in Q4 2025 to +3.0% in the opening quarter of the year. 

Underlying figures show that around 28.7% of companies expect their marketing budgets to increase over the coming year, more than the 25.6% anticipating reductions. 

Maryam Baluch, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence and author of the Bellwether Report, explained: “This rebound occurred despite a surge in price pressures, driven by rising energy costs, which have cast a shadow of caution and concern over the broader economy. Nevertheless, marketing executives have demonstrated resilience, concentrating efforts on revenue-generating sectors and prioritising targeted, client-driven campaigns - including more events - to better position their organisations amid ongoing headwinds and uncertainty.

She continued: “Budgets for the 2026/27 financial year have also been revised up, underlining a cautious mood of optimism and strategic intent within the industry. This upward adjustment reflects not only upbeat forecasts around future market conditions, but also a recognition of the need to invest in growth opportunities and maintain competitive advantage as challenges persist."

28.6% of respondents also reported greater optimism about their company’s financial outlook compared to three months ago, marginally outpacing the 28.0% who expressed pessimism. This resulted in a net balance of +0.6%. While only marginally positive, this figure represents a significant improvement from Q4 2025’s recent low of -19.0%.

At the broader industry level, sentiment remained downbeat, a trend that has persisted since the final quarter of 2021. Around 35.3% of marketing executives reported a pessimistic view of industry prospects, more than double the 14.4% who felt more optimistic. The resulting net balance of -21.0% (up from -30.1% in Q4) was well below the series average, yet it marks a five-quarter high, signalling that while industry-wide confidence is still fragile, the mood has improved. Finally, some good news in an overwhelmingly bearish market.