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IPA Bellwether reports Q4 flatline for marketing spend
The latest figures from the quarterly report record no change to budgets as confidence dips.
Georgie Moreton
Deputy Editor, BITE CreativebriefMarketing’s golden quarter saw budgets remain unchanged, according to data from the latest IPA Bellwether report.
"2025 closed on neutral footing, with marketing budgets holding firm throughout the quarter as businesses exercised caution around major events such as the Autumn Budget,” explains Maryam Baluch, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence and Author of the Bellwether Report.
Following two quarters of upward budget revisions in Q2 and Q3 2025, the year closed on a quieter note. Total market budgets saw a net balance registering at 0.0%, down from +3.6% in Q3.
Global instability continues to unsettle markets, while domestically there appears to be limited faith in the Government’s grip on the economy.
Paul Bainsfair, Director General at the IPA.
With increasing cost pressures, an uncertain Autumn Budget and muted economic activity, Bellwether respondents exercised restraint when revising marketing spend. Over half (57.4%) of respondents left their marketing budgets unchanged in Q4 2025, while the remaining panellists were split between reporting an increase and implementing cuts.
“This quarter’s flatlining of marketing spend reflects a wider confidence problem. Global instability continues to unsettle markets, while domestically there appears to be limited faith in the Government’s grip on the economy. Until that changes, caution is understandable,” says Paul Bainsfair, Director General at the IPA.
Quietly strengthening audience reach
In Q4, businesses prioritised strengthening their online presence and reaching wider audiences. While category spend saw little change, budgets were raised for PR and events. Activities that directly engage audiences and seek to build positive brand relationships.
PR investment rose from +2.5% to +3.5 in Q4. While event spending saw an increase, the rate of increase fell steeply from +10.9% to +1.4%. Main media and sales promotions budgets both recorded no change to their budgets in the final quarter of 2025.
The most pronounced decline in spend was in out-of-home marketing down to -17.6% from -15.2% in Q3. Audio was the second-worst performer at -10.2%.
Modest expectations for 2026
In the final quarter of 2025, survey respondents were more downbeat than in previous quarters with regard to individual company prospects and the broader industry.
With a rise of 2.9% signalling a marked degree of pessimism towards their financial prospects for the coming three months. Sentiment from respondents in Q4 recorded the highest level of negativity in 13 quarters.
Marketers are rightly cautious and concerned about the global economic outlook. Forecasts for 2026 GDP growth have been modestly amended by S&P Global Market Intelligence from 1.1% to 0.8%.
“As we move into 2026, the economic climate remains challenging, with marketeers under pressure to deliver ROI as firms scrutinise spending decisions more harshly given the competitive market landscape and subdued macroeconomic outlook,” explains Baluch.
With global trade uncertainties looming, geopolitical tensions growing and business confidence down, the downward revision is reflective of widespread caution in business.
Yet with predicted Bank of England rate cuts in 2026 and consumer spending strengthening, marketers are encouraged to hold their nerve.
“What we can say with confidence is that those organisations which continue to invest in advertising, especially in a quieter market, stand to gain greater visibility and, over time, increased market share,” adds Bainsfair.
Adspend is projected to rise 1.5% in 2026, up from earlier estimates of 1.2%,
The industry weighs in on the IPA Bellwether
Mark Howley, COO at Publicis Media and Chair of the IPA Media Futures Group
I think the sentiment of the report reflects today’s uncertainty, volatility, and a poor visibility of the 12 months ahead. But this may prove to be a little downbeat for main media and advertising growth. Many companies now operate and budget globally and are centred out of the USA, and fundamentally the States has moved from sluggish GDP growth and even decline in Q1 2025 to quite strong growth: 4% estimated for second half of 2025. A strong US economy emerging (or continuing) in 2026 I think may drive more optimism and growth than perhaps the current survey is reflecting.
Amy Garrett, UK President, Weber Shandwick
The latest IPA Bellwether Report shows that while overall marketing budgets stayed flat in Q4 2025, it’s encouraging to see PR and events spending continuing to grow. This highlights the value of these channels in helping brands remain visible and connected, even in uncertain times. For our clients, this means leaning into PR to build trust, maintain relevance and drive meaningful engagement with key audiences.
Looking ahead to 2026/27, with economic challenges still in play, marketers will need to focus on delivering ROI. For PR, it’s about showing we can drive impact by combining creativity, smart digital tools and compelling storytelling to help brands engage and stand out.
Amy Lawrence, Head of Digital, EMEA, Publicis Imagine & Chair of the IPA Digital Marketing Group
There have been significant changes in the main media budget forecasts since the previous Bellwether report. Whilst the overall outlook shows a slight decline, there are notable swings within channels, most prominently Video (from +6.7% to -5.1%) and Other Online (from +2.1% to +13.2%). Although caution is required when interpreting these broad categories, the sharp increase in Other Online spend points to a wider shift towards performance-focused investment and short-term ROI amid ongoing economic uncertainty. With potential rate cuts on the horizon, a degree of rebalancing may emerge in the next wave of results.
Bill Doris, VP Analytics, EMEA, EssenceMediacom & Chair of the IPA Media Research Advisory Group
The latest IPA Bellwether Report shows Market Research budgets trimmed for the fourth quarter in a row, with a net balance of -4.0% in Q4 2025 although the degree of cuts eased a little towards the end of the year. Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026/27 hints at more belt-tightening with market research expected to see the biggest budget reductions across categories (net balance -17.4%). While not the cheeriest news, it’s clear businesses are placing extra scrutiny on their Market research investment.
Jim Kelly, Deputy MD Head of Planning, Story and IPA Chair for Scotland
It’s nice to start the year on a positive note. At least the latest Bellwether Report does indicate some green shoots in the form of anticipated easing of inflationary pressures, alongside reduced borrowing costs, seeing business investment springing back in 2026. Also, there’s recognition that marketing budgets did hold firm despite such significant levels of uncertainty in the latest quarter. However, there’s no hiding from this being one of the weakest preliminary outlooks in Bellwether history, with no growth anticipated in main media advertising. Perhaps that’s no surprise given the continued lack of confidence amongst both businesses and consumers, combined with cost-of-living pressures. It’s imperative for agencies and their clients to keep building the case for continued marketing investment and the benefits that this delivers, to give those green shoots any chance of pushing through.
Sue Benson, Managing Director, The Behaviours Agency and IPA City Head for Manchester & North West
2025 closed on a note of "budgetary stasis," but look beneath the surface and you’ll see classic human behaviour at play. While total spend sat at a neutral 0.0%, the jump in PR and "other online" reveals a frantic search for trust and targeted relevance.
Despite this resilience, the sharp dip in company financial optimism is a real worry - it’s that familiar "wait and see" nervousness. At The Behaviours Agency, we know that in these cautious moments, brand memorability is your best hedge. It’s not always about spending more; it’s about being unignorable when consumers eventually pull the trigger.
Penny Took, CEO, Mediaplus Connect and IPA City Head for Birmingham and the Midlands
Predictions for 2026 based on Q4 2025 suggest a challenging year ahead for both agencies and marketeers with few sectors unaffected by a pessimistic economic outlook, impacting on both marketing decisions and a depressed recruitment environment. But there are some positive signs. Adspend growth in total is expected to rise by 1.5% in 2026. Historically low, but ahead of 2025. AI adoption and realisation is now a fact of life, and it is a prerequisite that we bring best practice to all elements of the media and creative process. Even more importantly when clients are looking to get best value from their marketing budgets. Taking the opportunity to provide greater connectivity across advertising services for clients will also provide budget conscious Marketeers with routes to deliver more effective campaigns. A challenging but exciting year ahead!”
Tilman Harmeling, Senior Privacy Expert, Usercentrics
With UK marketing budgets flat, and advertiser confidence weakening, brands can’t rely on spend alone to drive growth in 2026. The Bellwether data shows marketers pulling back from broad reach media and retreating to what they can control, measure and defend: owned, first-party and performance-led digital activity. But that strategy only works if consumers opt in. With 73% saying they would abandon a brand over data misuse, and nearly half clicking ‘accept all’ less than they did three years ago, privacy and consent are no longer compliance hygiene - they’re the infrastructure that keeps digital performance working. Brands that treat privacy as part of the customer experience, not an afterthought, will be far better placed to build loyalty in a market where long-term growth will be driven by trust.
Karin Seymour, Client and Marketing Director at Sky Media
When every pound is under scrutiny, effectiveness matters more than ever in driving growth. Brand-building has repeatedly been shown to deliver both short-term impact and long-term growth and is why we’re seeing advertisers focus their media investment in trusted, premium environments like TV that give brands a clear advantage.
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